The latest data is creating additional concerns with the rising incidence of the Delta variant that is running through communities, especially those that are unvaccinated. There are a number of factors at play with increased transmissibility that appears to be attributable to the virus shedding in infected individuals earlier and at high rates (Viral infection and transmission in a large well-traced outbreak caused by the Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant)
Hospitals are beginning to struggle with the numbers of COVID19 patients and they are skewing younger than they did in the early part of the pandemic and increasing places bringing back masking requirements for un-vaccinated and vaccinated
We discuss what that might mean for the upcoming HIMSS conference scheduled to take place in a few weeks in Las Vegas and the resounding point backed by science and data – getting vaccines in people’s arms as quickly and widely as possible is the most mechanism we have in fighting the pandemic to protect out friends, families, parents, children and our businesses
Who do you care for enough to get that vaccine?
Raw Transcript
Nick van Terheyden
Hi, this is Dr. Nick on the incrementalist here with incremental insights for better business better health.
Fred Goldstein
And I’m Fred Goldstein with accountable health here working with employers and other companies on keeping their employees healthy, and reopening strategies and operating around COVID. So Nick, another week, it seems like each week gets bigger and bigger. The term Delta has really taken off, obviously, a lot going on with Delta. What do you see? And
Nick van Terheyden
I think the airlines doing fine, Fred, what are you talking about? I’m sure somebody else has made that connection. They tried to disassociate the name from anything that people but you know, turns out anyway, yes, the Delta variant so that, you know, we continue to learn, we’ve seen it, I think it’s now at 80% of infections here in the US it, you know, accelerating in other countries, I think we’ve called it out on our discussions, there was a clear expectation, it is more effective. I’ve heard various estimates, most recently at least double. And part of that is that it produces more virus quicker in the nasal pharynx. That’s the you know, the sections behind the nose in the back of the mouth. And that means that it spreads more virus, we’ve talked about the infected deposited dose, or the IDD, the more virus that is exposed to you, the more likely you are to develop the disease. And interestingly, the other piece of data is it’s spreading about two days earlier, which means that we have people who get the disease may not be symptomatic. So we don’t know because we don’t have, you know, widespread testing in place. And they’re out and they’re spreading the disease. So there’s a number of factors that are contributing to this acceleration. But notable, it is impacting vastly more of the folks that are unvaccinated. And, you know, multiple people have said it, I’ve said it, we have a pandemic, within a pandemic, the pandemic of unvaccinated individuals, and it’s skewing younger, because they’re the people that are predominantly less vaccinated, in part because they had less access. But also, a lot of folks are refusing to get vaccine, we’re only scraping over half of the population.
Fred Goldstein
Yeah, it’s pretty amazing. And you end watching that impact to around the communities, you’re really seeing hospitals begin to struggle with the numbers of individuals coming in, whether it’s here in Jacksonville, Florida, and obviously Florida is leading the nation in terms of new infections. In fact, it’s fascinating that our governor yesterday came out, forcefully said get vaccinated vaccines work. This is a message obviously, we need to get out to people. And we’ll be discussing some of that later. But I think, you know, even this morning, I was reading in Kansas City, the University of Kansas hospital is reporting that therefore, other hospitals are reporting the same issues around the country. So individuals who are unvaccinated and given the fact that it does spread so easily. And we now go around to places and see so few individuals wearing masks, and practicing some of those non pharmaceutical interventions that we’ve talked about forever. You’re hearing some communities bring it back, I think it’s really important for people to consider whether vaccinated or not, if you’re going indoors at this point, you really should be considering wearing a mask and watching your distance.
Nick van Terheyden
Yeah, and you know, that brings up an upcoming conference at both you and I are scheduled to attend the hymns, which is the big conference that got canceled, you know, right at the beginning of the pandemic, it was one of the first that sort of fell to that challenge. And here we are with a rising instance. And it’s taking place in Vegas. You know, they’ve gone through a process of vaccine verification. I’m not sure if you’re not vaccinated, you definitely can’t get into certain areas. I don’t know if you can attend, you just, you know, can’t attend, and they’re verifying it as best as they can. But is that enough?
Fred Goldstein
Yeah, I think it’s a great point, Nick. And, you know, perhaps you want to discuss this more, being in a large group, but individuals vaccinated, there is still some risk. Is that true? Yeah. I
Nick van Terheyden
mean, let’s be frank about this. If if you’ve had let’s pick Pfizer, Madonna, and you know, all of these numbers start to merge, but, you know, recollection, they were about 95% effective. So that meant that at least 5% of the population who were vaccinated can still get and might get COVID It now they get at a much lower intensity, they don’t get the severe disease, they typically are not admitted to hospital and are not dying from it. So all good news, but you can still get it and with the Delta variants are normal this spreadability, that means that they can potentially spread it. And this particular variant is much more agile than locking onto people. And we think that that increase in the Delta variant is reducing some of the effectiveness can’t quote the numbers here. But certainly, so at that point, you’re going do you want to take the risk, we want to reduce this, we want less infections, because the more infections you have the more chances for a variant to emerge, that becomes even more problematic.
Fred Goldstein
And this brings us back to this point that people are talking about, and that is, you know, living with the virus. And the question is, you can look at that in two ways. One is to live with the virus and just sort of forget about it, I’m going to live with this thing. And the other is the more responsible approach, how do we do that? And I think that’s what hims you know, may want to take a look at perhaps individuals were vaccinated and immunocompromised might make a decision that this might not be the best place to come. And others may say, hey, it’s time to maybe do masks. So be interesting to see, obviously, I’m still planning to go I assume you’re planning to go as well. Yeah, I’m,
Nick van Terheyden
I’m planning to go. But you know, bear in mind, the other thing that bears into this decision is where it’s taking place. And Vegas, is actually I think, on the a tenner, in terms of increased, partly because there’s the places awash with boats coming in from all sorts of places and is a big melting pot. So it’s not just the conference, we are not confined to where we are in this vaccine bubble. We’ve all got to get to our hotels, we’ve got to walk through those, you know,
Fred Goldstein
forums and areas. So I think huge, huge concern. Absolutely. And obviously, with the unvaccinated in the population, I think Vegas actually is leading the nation now in large cities in terms of infections with Jacksonville. Number two. So let’s get on to this whole issue. We keep seeing this stuff about people saying all the misinformation out there, think about the vaccines and the virus. What’s happening there, Nick?
Nick van Terheyden
Yeah. So I, you know, trying to be logical about this. And, you know, I always start with what would persuade you to be vaccinated? You and I, I know you are? And I certainly am, I’ve declared this, we are vaccinated, and very grateful to have access to that vaccine. If you’re not vaccinated, why are you not vaccinated? And what would persuade you, or what is dissuading you of the step to do so we’ve seen a number of stories of people sort of desperate, you know, young folks on lung transplant less are actually having lung transplants as a result of having COVID-19. So we know, vaccines will diminish and reduce all that impact, their safety record is extraordinarily good. The question is, how do we persuade those folks who can I persuade today that vaccines are safe, and it is your best pathway to actually preventing the disease in you, your children, your elderly relatives, and all the people around you? Who do you care for enough to get that vaccine?
Fred Goldstein
Yeah, I think getting the message out individually may be the better way to do it at this point is we’re seeing a lack of response to the higher ranking or the experts say do this and do that. So once again, another fantastic week, unfortunately, we’re seeing this delta surge. It’s great talking to you again, Nick, this is Fred Goldstein with accountable health. If you’d like more information, reach out to us please go to accountable health. llc.com
Nick van Terheyden
and this is Dr. Nick, I’m the incrementalist here with incremental insights for better business, better health.
